While the Rams won the Super Bowl, the Lions may have won this major deal if a more long-term lens is used to evaluate the deal.
HIGHLIGHTS
- The Rams’ draft day trade to pick Jared Goff was costly, but initially paid off as they made the Super Bowl. However, his performance declined, and the team looked to move on.
- Matthew Stafford had a great first season with the Rams, leading them to a Super Bowl victory, but has struggled in his second and third years, while Goff has impressed with the Lions.
- The Lions not only acquired Goff, but also three draft picks, which they have used to acquire promising players like Jameson Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Sam LaPorta, making the trade a big win for them.
In January 2021, the Los Angeles Rams traded Jared Goff and three draft picks to the Detroit Lions for Matthew Stafford. The Rams were a title contender and Stafford had languished in Detroit for years. The trade looked fantastic for the Rams one year later as Stafford led the team to a victory in Super Bowl LVI, where they defeated the Cincinnati Bengals by a score of 23-20.
It is now two and a half years later, and things aren’t so simple. Thanks to Goff and their young players, the Lions look like one of the best teams in the league. The Rams and Stafford have both struggled over the last season and a half, so it might just be time to start looking at the deal as a win for the Lions.
It cost the Rams plenty to get their hands on Jared Goff. The team traded up from the 15th selection in 2016, shipping several future picks to the Tennessee Titans. The team selected Goff, who had starred at the University of California, with the top overall pick.
And things went well. Goff rode the bench for half of his rookie season, then showed flashes when he got the chance to play more. Following Goff’s rookie season, the Rams hired head coach Sean McVay and things really started looking up. In his second season with McVay, the Rams made the playoffs and in year three they made the Super Bowl, losing to the New England Patriots in one of the ugliest NFL title games of all-time.
Goff’s play dipped in 2020 and 2021 as he continued to throw for big yardage and TD totals, while his turnovers shot up as well. Despite signing the quarterback to a $134 million extension in 2019, the team was already looking to turn the page barely two years later.
Matthew Stafford was great in year one
Matthew Stafford, selected first overall by the Detroit Lions in 2009, played a lot of good football for a lot of bad teams. For some time, he did get to throw the ball to Calvin Johnson, but the legendary receiver stepped away from the game prematurely in 2015, and the hapless Lions were a big reason why.
Despite the poor direction of the franchise, Stafford was loyal to Detroit, staying with the team for 12 seasons. The Lions finally decided that their best path forward was to trade Stafford for a big package so that they could bootstrap their rebuilding effort. For their quarterback’s services, they received two first-round selections, one third-round selection, and Goff.
Stafford was terrific in his first season with the Rams, throwing for 4,886 yards and 41 touchdowns against just 17 interceptions. Finally getting to play with immense talent around him, Stafford led the team to a Super Bowl win as he put up a 108.3 passer rating throughout the four-game playoff run. It was all the more impressive considering Stafford had never won a playoff game previously and had played in just three in his first 12 years.
The quarterbacks are going in different directions
Following his big season in 2021, Stafford had an injury-plagued year in 2022. The Rams, coming off a Super Bowl title, finished with a 5-12 record as they went through arguably the worst Super Bowl hangover in NFL history. With Stafford starting at quarterback, the Rams finished 3-6 over nine games and the QB threw 10 TDs against eight interceptions.
Stafford, now 35 years old, is having his worst season in years. Through eight games in 2023, he has completed less than 60% of his passes for the first time since 2013. He also had just eight touchdown passes against seven interceptions. Not to mention the Rams are currently 3-6.
When the Lions first acquired Goff, some thought that they would flip him to another team. But in Goff’s first season, he impressed Detroit, and they decided to stick with him. Over the last year and a half, Goff’s contract has looked like one of the biggest bargains in the league.
| Touchdown Passes | Matthew Stafford | Jared Goff |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 41 | 19 |
| 2022 | 10 | 29 |
| 2023 | 8 | 14 |
Last season, Goff made the Pro Bowl for the first time since 2018. He threw for 4,438 yards with 29 touchdowns and seven interceptions. The Lions did not make the playoffs, but they won eight of their last 10 games and their 9-8 record meant that they were in it until the final game of the season. Head coach Dan Campbell had clearly succeeded in instituting a culture change.
So far this year, the 29-year-old Goff looks like a top 10 quarterback in the NFL. Through nine games, he has thrown for 2,507 yards with 14 touchdown passes against just five interceptions (sixth-fewest for QBs with at least five starts this year). The Lions have not made the playoffs since the 2016 season, but with the team currently at 7-2, that is likely to change this year.
The Lions got a lot more than Goff
The deal would be pretty close if it was Goff for Stafford straight up. But the Lions also got three draft picks in the deal. They have deftly turned those three picks into six through trades. So, the players acquired in the trade now include Jameson Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta, Obi Melifonwu, Josh Paschal, and Brodric Martin.
Williams has had a rough start to his career. He was injured when drafted and also served a suspension for gambling. Still, he has elite speed and showed incredible talent at the University of Alabama. There’s still a shot for him at becoming an impact player.
Gibbs, an electric running back and pass-catcher, was selected 12th overall this year, also from Alabama. So far, he has rushed for 476 yards and four touchdowns and caught 31 passes for another 200 yards. He looks like the team’s running back of the future.
Rookie tight end Sam LaPorta also looks like a keeper. The 6’3″, 245-pounder was drafted from tight end factory Iowa and already has 47 catches (fourth among tight ends) for 474 yards (fifth) and four touchdowns (t-third) in 2023.
Conventional wisdom usually says that if a trade helps you win a championship, the deal is worth it, regardless of what you gave up. So some would argue that makes the Rams the winners of the trade no matter what. But considering how well Goff is playing, his young age, and the other assets acquired, the Lions will go down as the winners here. And who knows, maybe Goff will lead the Lions to a Super Bowl. Then there will be no question.
