What happens to Russell Wilson if the Denver Broncos wind up needing to rebuild?
The Denver Broncos’ disappointing 1-3 start has led some to ask, including yours truly, whether it’s time for the franchise to orchestrate a full rebuild after the 2023 season.
And if the Broncos were to pull the trigger on a rebuild, what happens to quarterback Russell Wilson?
Although Wilson hasn’t been great this season, he hasn’t been terrible, either, and certainly not the biggest culprit in the Broncos’ struggles. However, if the Broncos were serious about a full rebuild, it would likely mean parting ways with Wilson.
We’ve previously discussed the Broncos’ options when it comes to cutting Wilson, but in the interest of being thorough, a post-June 1 cut is doable before the 2024 NFL league year begins in March. However, it would come with a $35.4 million dead money charge in 2024 and 2025.
Furthermore, Wilson would need to be able to pass a physical because his 2025 salary is injury-only guaranteed on the fifth day of the 2024 league year. But some have asked the question about whether it’s possible to trade Wilson after the 2023 season. Let’s examine how that might work.
First of all, when a player is traded, the cap effect is immediate. You can’t give a trade a post-June 1 designation. Only if a trade is made after June 1 do you get that benefit in terms of spreading out dead money over two seasons.
Therefore, if the Broncos traded Wilson in March 2024, they would take a $68M dead money charge and lose $32.6M in cap space, per Over the Cap’s cap calculator.
However, Wilson is due an option bonus of $22M for 2024, and said option bonus is treated like a signing bonus if exercised. If the Broncos traded him before they exercised the option bonus, that should actually reduce the dead money charge.
I visited with Jason Fitzgerald at Over the Cap, and he confirmed that if Wilson is traded, the $22M option bonus wouldn’t apply to the Broncos’ dead money hit because the acquiring team would pay the option bonus.
Therefore, the Broncos would actually take a $46M dead money charge, though they would still lose cap space, but it would be closer to $10M lost. In that case, the Broncos could cut a couple of players (which is likely to happen anyway) to gain cap space.
The Broncos waiting until after June 1 to trade him wouldn’t be practical because most teams would want to have their QB situations, in terms of who is their starter or in competition for the starting job, resolved by that point. Furthermore, waiting until after June 1 means the Broncos would have to exercise the option bonus, even as they’re able to spread dead money charges over two years.
Another possibility is the Broncos keeping Wilson through 2024, then trying to trade him in 2025. In that situation, the Broncos would take a $49.6M dead money charge but free up $5.8M in cap space. The team would also be able to move the $37M base salary for 2025, which would become fully guaranteed in 2024.
A 2025 trade, of course, would depend on how well Wilson is playing in 2024. While it’s not out of the question that the Broncos could draft a QB in 2024, develop him behind Wilson, and then trade the veteran later, it does carry the risk of what happens to Wilson in 2024.
Therefore, a 2024 trade would make sense if done before the Broncos have to pick up the option bonus due. While there may not be a lot of teams interested, a couple are possibilities.
Atlanta Falcons: If the Falcons finish with a winning record but aren’t convinced that Desmond Ridder is the answer at QB, they might be interested in Wilson. Wilson would go to a team that should have the cap space to accommodate his contract and have some quality players in place. This might be the best situation for everyone if the Falcons think they need a new QB but aren’t in position to draft one or move up the board. The Falcons also don’t have a lot of free agents in 2024 who are priorities to retain.
Detroit Lions: While the Lions have had success with Jared Goff, he remains an average QB at best. It’s possible the Lions would see Wilson as an upgrade over Goff if they finish with a winning record but either miss the playoffs or exit in the first round. The Lions could then release Goff, who will enter the final year of his contract in 2024, has no guaranteed money left but is due a $5M roster bonus on March 19, 2024. The Lions are also projected to have a lot of cap space, so they could easily take Wilson’s contract and don’t have free agents who are priorities to keep.
Washington Commanders: Though the Commanders seem to like Sam Howell, there is no guarantee he will prove to be the answer at QB. If they finish with a good overall record but not in a draft position that lets them draft another QB, they might be interested in Wilson. The Commanders are another team with some pieces in place and with a lot of cap space projected for 2024. Though the Commanders do have two key free agents to re-sign, both are pass rushers (Chase Young and Montez Sweat), they have already invested a lot of money in pass rushers and, while they might keep one of Young or Sweat, keeping both would be a luxury and money might be better committed to a veteran QB.
Last but not least, keep in mind that Wilson has a no-trade clause, which means he must consent to any trades the Broncos make. Wilson must therefore be prepared to join any side that is interested in trading for him in order for a deal to happen.
No matter how good Wilson performs this season, the Broncos won’t receive multiple first-round picks as trade compensation. A deal more like the one in which Carson Wentz was dealt to the Indianapolis Colts by the Philadelphia Eagles would be more likely. Wilson has a stronger track record as a productive quarterback, despite the fact that he is older than Wentz.
The Eagles received a third-round pick and a future second that could become a first if Wentz played a certain number of snaps. Therefore, a third-round pick in 2024 for Wilson is a reasonable starting point, plus a conditional pick in 2025.
Let’s say the 2025 pick starts as a third, but becomes a second if Wilson plays a certain percentage of snaps, then becomes a first if he hits that percentage and the acquiring team makes the playoffs in 2024.
